House prices fell slightly in 2023, and some experts predict further reductions could follow this year.
The latest data from the Land Registry shows an annual fall of 0.2%, with the average UK house price standing at £281,000 in February. While this isn’t far off the all-time high of £292,000 recorded in September 2022, prices have been trending downwards rather than upwards.
Here, Which? analyses what’s happening to house prices according to other indices including Nationwide, Halifax, and Rightmove, and explains what might come next.
How have house prices changed?
The Land Registry’s UK House Price Index is the most reliable barometer of what’s happening to house prices, as it’s based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It works on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for February.
The Land Registry says the average price of a property in the UK dipped by 0.2% between February 2023 and 2024.
In the 12 months prior, house price growth increased by 4.3% – so there has been a marked slowdown in growth over the past year.
There is a gap of £90,000 between the average price paid by first-time buyers and those who are already on the housing ladder in England:
- First-time buyer: £249,000
- Home mover: £339,000
How do other house price indices compare?
As well as Land Registry data, there are several other property price indices that indicate what’s going on with house prices.
The portal Rightmove provides the most up-to-date figures, but they’re based on asking prices set by sellers rather than confirmed sales. Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own monthly data, based on mortgage lending.
Halifax and Nationwide’s latest figures show house prices have fallen month-on-month, while Rightmove’s data reveals asking prices have risen.
| House price index | Month-on-month change | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Rightmove (March 2024) | +1.5% | +0.8% |
| Nationwide (March 2024) | -0.2% | +1.6% |
| Halifax (March 2024) | -1% | +0.3% |
House price changes by region in February 2024
Price changes vary from region-to-region and country-to-country.
Land Registry data shows the majority of areas recorded slight price increases in February.
London (4.8%) experienced the biggest falls in the year to February 2024.
| Country/region | Property price | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | £298,000 | +0.6% | -1.1% |
| Scotland | £188,000 | -0.6% | +5.6% |
| Wales | £211,000 | +0.4% | -1.2% |
| Northern Ireland (Oct-Dec 2023) | £178,000 | -0.9% | +1.4% |
| East Midlands | £242,000 | +1.4% | -0.4% |
| East of England | £339,000 | +1.7% | -1.6% |
| London | £503,000 | -0.7% | -4.8% |
| North East | £160,000 | +3.2% | +2.9% |
| North West | £214,000 | -0.2% | +1.4% |
| South East | £373,000 | +1.1% | -2.1% |
| South West | £317,000 | +0.5% | -0.4% |
| West Midlands | £242,000 | -1.2% | -2.9% |
| Yorkshire & Humber | £205,000 | +0.9% | +0.2% |
House price changes by region in February 2024
Price changes vary from region-to-region and country-to-country.
Land Registry data shows the majority of areas recorded slight price increases in February.
London (4.8%) experienced the biggest falls in the year to February 2024.
| Country/region | Property price | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | £298,000 | +0.6% | -1.1% |
| Scotland | £188,000 | -0.6% | +5.6% |
| Wales | £211,000 | +0.4% | -1.2% |
| Northern Ireland (Oct-Dec 2023) | £178,000 | -0.9% | +1.4% |
| East Midlands | £242,000 | +1.4% | -0.4% |
| East of England | £339,000 | +1.7% | -1.6% |
| London | £503,000 | -0.7% | -4.8% |
| North East | £160,000 | +3.2% | +2.9% |
| North West | £214,000 | -0.2% | +1.4% |
| South East | £373,000 | +1.1% | -2.1% |
| South West | £317,000 | +0.5% | -0.4% |
| West Midlands | £242,000 | -1.2% | -2.9% |
| Yorkshire & Humber | £205,000 | +0.9% | +0.2% |
Will the property market pick up?
Demand from buyers has fallen over the last 12 months, with high mortgage rates resulting in the market cooling off.
Estate agent trade body Propertymark says that the number of buyers registering with estate agents decreased slightly in February, but that there was an 18% increase in new properties coming to the market.
A slower market means buyers hold the upper hand when negotiating a purchase price. Data from Zoopla shows sellers are most commonly reducing their asking prices by 5% or more in the South East and East of England.
Rightmove says sellers are taking an average of 71 days to secure a buyer. That’s a big increase from the 57 days recorded in February last year.
What will happen to house prices?
Lenders and property portals predict that house prices will fall this year, but that huge drops are unlikely.
- HSBC and Nationwide predict prices will remain broadly the same.
- Rightmove and Zoopla forecast drops of 1% and 2% respectively.
- Halifax predicts prices will fall by between 2% and 4%.
However, we have already seen one change of mind. The estate agency Knight Frank predicted a 4% drop in its original forecasts in October, but now predicts a 3% rise. It puts this down to inflation and mortgage rates falling more quickly than anticipated.
